Powerful Hurricane Irma could be next weather disaster

Powerful Hurricane Irma could be next weather disaster

By Brandon Miller, CNN Meteorologist

Updated 0923 GMT (1723 HKT) September 2, 2017

Hurricane Irma may pose threat to US

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A charter MD83 slid off Runway 23L upon departure from Willow Run Airport at 2:55 Eastern Time this afternoon. The intended destination of the aircraft was Dulles International Airport, Washington DC. The FAA is investigating.
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A charter MD83 slid off Runway 23L upon departure from Willow Run Airport at 2:55 Eastern Time this afternoon. The intended destination of the aircraft was Dulles International Airport, Washington DC. The FAA is investigating.
Strong winds blow team's plane off runway
Lightning strike causes tree trunk to explode
2016: The hottest year on record
freezing rain sleet snow orig_00000810.jpg
Freezing rain vs sleet
lake-effect snow orig_00000000.jpg
What is lake-effect snow?
A man carries personal items through a flooded street caused by remnants of Hurricane Matthew on October 11, 2016 in Fair Bluff, North Carolina. Thousands of homes have been damaged in North Carolina as a result of the storm and many are still under threat of flooding.
Wind isn't the biggest worry during a hurricane
water rescues human chain jnd orig vstan_00004203.jpg
Woman trapped in car during flash flood
blizzard explainer defintion nws orig_00011424.jpg
Is this storm really a blizzard?
Hurricane Irma satellite image
Hurricane Irma may pose threat to US
how hurricanes are named orig_00002729.jpg
How are hurricanes named?
IN SPACE - In this handout photo provided by NASA, Hurricane Patricia is seen from the International Space Station. The hurricane made landfall on the Pacfic coast of Mexico on October 23. (Photo by Scott Kelly/NASA via Getty Images)
What you should know about hurricanes
This picture taken on July 26, 2015 shows a child playing in a fountain on a square to cool himself amid a heatwave in Binzhou, eastern China's Shandong province. CHINA OUT AFP PHOTO (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images)
What NOT to do in a heat wave
Heat wave breaks records in the West
NEW YORK - JULY 10: A man wipes sweat from his face July 10, 2007 in New York City. New York City is experiencing a second day of a heat wave with temperatures in the upper 90`s and uncomfortable humidity levels. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Nighttime 'lows' more dangerous than highs
Storm chasing photographers take photos underneath a rotating supercell storm system in Maxwell, Nebraska on September 3, 2016. Although multiple tornado warnings were issued throughout the area, no funnel cloud touched down. / AFP / Josh Edelson / XGTY RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE / MANDATORY CREDIT: "AFP PHOTO / Josh EDELSON" / NO MARKETING / NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS / DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS == (Photo credit should read JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Is it a tornado watch or warning?
4-year-old girl blown away by wind
Story highlights

Hurricane Irma is a powerful Category 3 and has rapidly intensified
Irma is in the open Atlantic, and it's too early to know where it will hit

(CNN)While much attention remains on Texas and the destruction left by Hurricane Harvey and its historic rainfall, powerful Hurricane Irma is rapidly intensifying in the open Atlantic and poses a major threat to the Caribbean and potentially to the United States next week.
Satellite image taken at 8 a.m. ET Friday shows Hurricane Irma in the eastern Atlantic
Satellite image taken at 8 a.m. ET Friday shows Hurricane Irma in the eastern Atlantic
With the storm still five days away from the outermost Caribbean islands and at least a week away from any potential US impacts, there is still a lot of uncertainty about where it will go.

The range of possibilities presented by the forecast models more than a week out literally spreads from Mexico to Canada -- and everywhere in between.
Irma was designated a tropical storm Wednesday morning, and by Thursday afternoon, it had strengthened into a large Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 mph.
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Such explosive strengthening is known as "rapid intensification," defined by the National Hurricane Center as having its wind speed increase at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.
"Irma has become an impressive hurricane," the National Hurricane Center said Thursday, noting the rapid intensification. "This is a remarkable 50 knot (58 mph) increase from yesterday at this time."
Hurricane Harvey underwent rapid intensification just before it made landfall late last Friday, strengthening quickly from a tropical storm into a Category 4 hurricane when it moved onshore near Corpus Christi, Texas.
Hurricane kryptonite not in the mix
Irma is a classic "Cape Verde hurricane," a type of hurricane that forms in the far eastern Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands (now known as the Cabo Verde Islands), then tracks all the way across the Atlantic. Cape Verde storms frequently become some of the largest and most intense hurricanes. Examples are Hurricane Hugo, Hurricane Floyd, and Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma on the doorstep of the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast on Wednesday.
A strong high-pressure ridge to the north of Irma, over the Atlantic, is steering the storm to the west and limiting the wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which has allowed the storm to grow so quickly. Wind shear is like hurricane kryptonite, and prevents storms from forming or gaining strength.
Unfortunately, Irma will remain in a low-shear environment for the next several days, so there isn't much hope that Irma will weaken any time soon.
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fast Facts
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fast Facts
TRACK THE STORM HERE
There is considerable confidence that Hurricane Irma will track to the west through the weekend and then take a slight jog to the southwest early next week in response "to a building ridge (of high pressure) over the central Atlantic."
From there, the forecast becomes a lot less clear, with some major differences among some of the key models meteorologists use to forecast hurricanes. The differences are so drastic that one prediction has Irma sliding harmlessly back out to sea, while in another, it makes multiple disastrous landfalls in the Caribbean and likely hits the United States after that.
Dueling prediction models
The European model, or ECMWF, and the American GFS model have had some notable showdowns before, most notably with Hurricane Sandy.
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Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts
With Sandy, the ECMWF correctly predicted a landfall in the Northeast nearly a week ahead, while the GFS continually kept the storm offshore in what became a major black eye for the US weather-modeling industry. There have been other examples in which the GFS model has outperformed its European counterpart, such as with a few major snowstorms in the Northeast.
Right now, the GFS has Irma taking a more northerly track that curves to the north before it reaches the Caribbean, thus making a US landfall much less likely.
The European model keeps the storm tracking further west, nearing the Bahamas by the end of next week.
European vs American weather models
European vs American weather models
"The ECMWF sees a much stronger ridge or Bermuda High (than the GFS) which forces Irma west, whereas the GFS has a weaker ridge and a more rightward, parabolic track," said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics.
"The prospects for major impacts anywhere from Cuba to Carolinas is concerning for this very reliable model," Maue said.
Irma is still more than 1,700 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and any impacts from the storm wouldn't be felt until Tuesday or Wednesday for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
The forecast picture should become clearer after the weekend.
Bottom line: Hurricane Irma is already a powerful hurricane and looks to only become more so. Those with interests in the Caribbean and southeast US coast should pay close attention to the forecast.

CNN Meteorologists Dave Hennen and Taylor Ward contributed to this piece.