It's going to be another busy, above average hurricane season, meteorologists say

It's going to be another busy, above average hurricane season, meteorologists say

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Published 10:00 a.m. ET April 5, 2018 | Updated 10:10 a.m. ET April 5, 2018

José Campeche High School in San Lorenzo, Puerto Rico still hasn’t seen any recovery money from state or federal agencies for repairs, said Candido Rivera, the school’s director. “Everything we’ve done, we’ve done by ourselves,” he said. Carrie Cochran/USA TODAY Network, Rick Jervis/USA TODAY

After a nightmarish 2017 hurricane season featuring monsters such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, many in the U.S. are hoping for a quieter year. A top forecasting group says that won't be the case.
Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University — regarded as the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters — predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.
Of the seven predicted hurricanes, three are expected to spin into major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there's a slightly above-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Klotzbach put the chance of a major hurricane strike at 63%.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.
Colorado State's prediction in 2017 was low: Last year, the team predicted 11 tropical storms would form, of which 4 would become hurricanes. In all, 17 tropical storms developed and 10 strengthened into hurricanes.

One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether the U.S. is in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern, he said.
El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, marked by cooler ocean water, tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Klotzbach said we're now in a weak La Niña event, which appears likely to diminish over the next several months. At this point, a significant El Niño is not anticipated for the summer or fall, he added.
The other big question mark in this season's predictions are how warm sea-surface temperatures will be in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to the forecast.
Hurricanes need the fuel of warm ocean water to develop and strengthen.
Insurance companies, emergency managers and the media use the forecasts to prepare Americans for the year's hurricane threat. The team's annual predictions provide a best estimate of activity during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, according to Colorado State.